Analysis of COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality in a low- income region: an ecological time-series study in Tocantins, Brazilian Amazon

Authors

  • Andre Evaristo Marcondes Cesar aMaster of Public Health Program, School of Medicine, University of Limerick, V94 T9PX, Limerick, Ireland.
  • Blanca Elena Guerrero Daboin aMaster of Public Health Program, School of Medicine, University of Limerick, V94 T9PX, Limerick, Ireland.
  • Tassiane Cristina Morais bEscola Superior de Ciências da Santa Casa de Misericórdia (EMESCAM), 29045-402 Vitória, ES, Brazil. cDepartamento de Educação Integrada em Saúde, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 29075-910 Vitória, ES, Brazil.
  • Isabella Portugal dDepartamento de Clínica Médica, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, 05403-000 São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
  • Jorge de Oliveira Echeimberg eLaboratório de Delineamento de Estudos e Escrita Científica, Centro Universitário FMABC, 09060-870 Santo André, SP, Brazil.
  • Luciano Miller Reis Rodrigues eLaboratório de Delineamento de Estudos e Escrita Científica, Centro Universitário FMABC, 09060-870 Santo André, SP, Brazil.
  • Lucas Cauê Jacintho fDivisão de Imunologia e Alergia Clínica, Departamento de Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, 05403-000 São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
  • Rodrigo Daminello Raimundo eLaboratório de Delineamento de Estudos e Escrita Científica, Centro Universitário FMABC, 09060-870 Santo André, SP, Brazil.
  • Khalifa Elmusharaf aMaster of Public Health Program, School of Medicine, University of Limerick, V94 T9PX, Limerick, Ireland.
  • Carlos Eduardo Siqueira aMaster of Public Health Program, School of Medicine, University of Limerick, V94 T9PX, Limerick, Ireland; gDepartment of Urban Planning and Community Development, School for the Environment, University of Massachusetts Boston, 100 Morrissey Boulevard, Boston, MA 02125.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36311/jhgd.v31.12744

Keywords:

COVID-19, case fatality, incidence, mortality, trends

Abstract

Introduction: Inserted in the vulnerable context of the Brazilian Amazon, the state of Tocantins has suffered damages with the dissemination of COVID-19 in its territory; however, little evidence is published from this state.

Objective: This study aims to analyze the case-fatality, mortality, and incidence of COVID-19 in Tocantins.

Methods: This is an ecological study, population-based, time-series analysis of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the state of Tocantins from March 2020 to August 2021.

Results: During the examined period, 219,031 COVID-19 cases, and 3,594 deaths were registered due to disease. Two possible occurrence peaks were characterized in this time-series analysis. Remarkably, the Second Wave had the highest lethality rates (3.02% - April 2021), mortality (39.81 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants – March 2021), and incidence (1,938.88 cases per 100,000 inhabitants – March 2021). At the end of the period, mortality, incidence, and lethality showed flat trends, suggesting a positive outcome of the vaccination program.

Conclusion: The prevention, surveillance, and control actions of COVID-19 cases in Tocantins State have been directed to mitigate the deleterious effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, efforts are still needed to decrease lethality, mortality, and incidence trends, and ultimately to achieve control of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region.

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Published

2021-12-01

Issue

Vol. 31 No. 3 (2021)

Section

ORIGINAL ARTICLES

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Copyright (c) 2021 Cesar AEM, Daboin BEG, Morais TC, Portugal I, Echeimberg JO, Rodrigues LMR, Jacintho LC, Raimundo RD, Elmusharaf K, Siqueira CE

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.