Trends in COVID-19 lethality and mortality rates in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil: a time series analysis from april 2020 to june 2021
Keywords:COVID-19, mortality, lethality, Epidemiology
Introduction: continual mutations of the sars-cov-2 virus, with the possibility of reinfection or reactivation of the virus, can lead to a further spread of the virus and consequently new infection periods. The state of pernambuco, brazil, has faced many adversities amidst the pandemic, requiring studies and new spatiotemporal techniques to understand the pandemic development and planning actions to reverse the current situation.
Objective: the aim was to evaluate the mortality and lethality trends of covid-19 from april 2020 to june 2021 in the state of pernambuco, brazil, with the division into two periods according to the waves of infection to date (1st period and 2nd period).
Methods: an ecological time-series study was carried out with population data from the pernambuco state health department. We collected the number of confirmed cases and deaths for covid-19. The trends were analyzed according to the prais-winsten regression model in two moments from march 2020 to september 2020 and the second from october 2021 to june 2022. Differences were considered significant when p<0.05.
Results: the state of pernambuco had 581,594 confirmed cases of covid-19, where 51,370 were severe cases, and 530,224 were mild cases, in addition to 18,444 deaths. Given the trends analyzed, mortality was increasing in the second period (april/2020 to june/2021), while lethality decreased in the first period and was stationary in the second period.
Conclusion: this study found an increasing trend in mortality of covid-19 in the state of pernambuco, brazil in the second period, highlighting an urgent need to develop surveillance measures as well as public policies for vulnerable populations, in addition to continuing preventive measures.
World Health Organization [homepage on the Internet] Geneva: World Health Organization; c2020. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report - 51. [Adobe Acrobat document, 9p.]. Available from: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200311-sitrep-51-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1ba62e57_10
World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease (COVID – 19) advice for the public. Available from: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public
Marinho PRD, Cordeiro GM, Coelho HFC, Brandão SCS. COVID-19 in Brazil: A sad scenario. Cytokine Growth Factor Rev. 2021 Apr; 58: 51-54. DOI: 10.1016/j.cytogfr.2020.10.010
Benítez MA, Velasco C, Sequeira AR, Henríquez J, Menezes FM, Paolucci F. Responses to COVID-19 in five Latin American countries. Health Policy Technol. 2020 Dec; 9(4): 525-559. DOI: 10.1016/j.hlpt.2020.08.014
Litewka SG, Heitman E. Latin American healthcare systems in times of pandemic. Dev World Bioeth. 2020, Jun; 20(2): 69-73. DOI: 10.1111/dewb.12262
John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. United States cases by county. Johns Hopkins University & Medicine. Retrieved may 15, 2021. Avaliable From: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
Giovanetti M, Benedetti F, Campisi G, Ciccozzi A, et al. Evolution patterns of SARS-CoV-2: Snapshot on its genome variants. Biochem Biophys Res Commun. 2021 Jan 29; 538: 88-91. DOI: 10.1016/j.bbrc.2020.10.102
Sarkar J, Guha R. Infectivity, virulence, pathogenicity, host-pathogen interactions of SARS and SARS-CoV-2 in experimental animals: a systematic review. Vet Res Commun. 2020; 44(3-4): 101-110. DOI:10.1007/s11259-020-09778-9
Callaway E. Fast-spreading COVID variant can elude immune responses. Nature. 2021 Jan; 589 (7843): 500-501. DOI: 10.1038/d41586-021-00121-z
Naveca FG, Nascimento V, de Souza VC, Corado AL, et al. COVID-19 in Amazonas, Brazil, was driven by the persistence of endemic lineages and P.1 emergence. Nat Med. 2021 May 25. DOI: 10.1038/s41591-021-01378-7
Abreu LC. The path of humanity in the pandemic of COVID-19: the choice of the realistic, optimist or pessimist scenario. J Hum Growth Dev. 2021; 31 (1): 05-08. DOI: 10.36311/jhgd.v31.11683
Silva APSC, Maia LTS, Souza WV. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Pernambuco: comparison of patterns before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Cien Saude Colet. 2020 Oct; 25 (suppl 2): 4141-4150. Portuguese, English. DOI: 10.1590/1413-812320202510.2.29452020
Magalhães JJF, Mendes RPG, Silva CTAD, Silva SJRD, Guarines KM, Pena L; Others for the Pernambuco COVID-19 Research Group. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the first 557 successive patients with COVID-19 in Pernambuco state, Northeast Brazil. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2020 Nov-Dec; 38: 101884. DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101884
Marinelli NP, Albuquerque LPA, Sousa IDB, Batista FMA, Mascarenhas MDM, Rodrigues MTP. Evolution of indicators and service capacity at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northeast Brazil, 2020. Epidemiol Serv Saude. 2020 Jun 3; 29 (3): e2020226. English, Portuguese. DOI: 10.5123/S1679-49742020000300008.
PERNAMBUCO. Decreto nº 50.724, de 17 de maio de 2021. Estabelece, para os Municípios integrantes das Gerências Regionais de Saúde (GERES) IV e V, regras restritivas adicionais relativas às medidas temporárias para enfrentamento da emergência de saúde pública de importância internacional decorrente do novo coronavírus (Marco Civil da Internet). GOVERNO DO ESTADO DE PERNAMBUCO, 2021.
Souza, WV et al. Cem dias de COVID-19 em Pernambuco, Brasil: a epidemiologia em contexto histórico. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, v. 36, 2020. DOI: 10.1590/0102-311X00228220
Quinino LRM, Vasconcellos FHM, Diniz IS, Aguiar LR, Ramos YTM, Bastiani F. Spatial and temporal aspects and factors associated with the spread of Covid-19 to the interior of the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Cien Saude Colet. 2021 Jun; 26 (6): 2171-2182. DOI: 10.1590/1413-81232021266.00642021
Kerr L, Kendall C, Silva AAMD, Aquino EML, et al. COVID-19 in Northeast Brazil: achievements and limitations in the responses of the state governments. Cien Saude Colet. 2020 Oct; 25 (suppl 2): 4099-4120. DOI: 10.1590/1413-812320202510.2.28642020
Cori A, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Cauchemez S. A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. Am J Epidemiol. 2013 Nov 1; 178 (9): 1505-12. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwt133
Thompson RN, Stockwin JE, van Gaalen RD, Polonsky JA, Kamvar ZN, Demarsh PA, Dahlqwist E, Li S, Miguel E, Jombart T, Lessler J, Cauchemez S, Cori A. Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks. Epidemics. 2019 Dec; 29: 100356. DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100356
Prete CA, Buss L, Dighe A, Porto VB, da Silva Candido D, et al. Serial interval distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Brazil. J Travel Med. 2021 Feb 23; 28(2). DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taaa115
Sheikh A, McMenamin J, Taylor B, Robertson C; Public Health Scotland and the EAVE II Collaborators. SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness. Lancet. 2021 Jun 26; 397 (10293): 2461-2462. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01358-1
Antunes FLJ & Cardoso MRA. Uso da análise de séries temporais em estudos epidemiológicos. Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde, Brasília, 24 (3): 565-576, jul-set 2015. DOI: 10.5123/S1679-49742015000300024
StataCorp. 2015. Stata Statistical Software: Release 14. College Station, TX: StataCorp LP.
Agência Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária – Anvisa. Vacinas COVID-19. Avaliable from: https://www.gov.br/anvisa/pt-br/assuntos/paf/coronavirus/vacinas
World Health Organization. Efforts to deploy COVID-19 vaccine in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region within the first 100 days of 2021. - Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean. Avaliable from: http://www.emro.who.int/emhj-volume-27-2021/volume-27-issue-5/efforts-to-deploy-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-who-eastern-mediterranean-region-within-the-first-100-days-of-2021.html
Secretaria Estadual de Saúde de Pernambuco. Avaliable from: http://portal.saude.pe.gov.br/noticias/secretaria-executiva-de-vigilancia-em-saude/imunizacao-contra-covid-19-documentos-e-tira
Majumder J, Minko T. Recent Developments on Therapeutic and Diagnostic Approaches for COVID-19. AAPS J. 2021 Jan 5; 23 (1): 14. DOI: 10.1208/s12248-020-00532-2
Udugama B, Kadhiresan P, Kozlowski HN, Malekjahani A, et al. Diagnosing COVID-19: The Disease and Tools for Detection. ACS Nano. 2020 Apr 28; 14 (4): 3822-3835. DOI: 10.1021/acsnano.0c02624
Oliveira BA, Oliveira LC, Sabino EC, Okay TS. SARS-CoV-2 and the COVID-19 disease: a mini review on diagnostic methods. Rev Inst Med Trop Sao Paulo. 2020 Jun 29; 62: e44. DOI: 10.1590/S1678-9946202062044
Leal-Neto OB, Santos FAS, Lee JY, Albuquerque JO, Souza WV. Prioritizing COVID-19 tests based on participatory surveillance and spatial scanning. Int J Med Inform. 2020 Nov; 143: 104263. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2020.104263
Cesar AEM, Daboin BEG, Morais TC, Portugal I, et al. Analysis of COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality in a low- income region: an ecological time-series study in Tocantins, Brazilian Amazon.J Hum Growth Dev. 2021; 31 (3): 496-506. DOI: 10.36311/jhgd.v31.12744
Junior DS, Morais TC, Portugal I, Cavalcanti MPE, Daboin BEG, et al. Trends in COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality rate in the State of Paraná, South Brazil: spatiotemporal analysis over one year of the Pandemic.J Hum Growth Dev. 2021; 31 (3): 549-561. DOI: 10.36311/jhgd.v31.12792
Junior ML, Morais TC, Eichemberg JO, Pereira JEG, Cavalcanti MPE, Pereira GAV, Silva HMR, Jacintho LC, Abreu LC. Lethality and mortality of COVID-19 in an important industrial center in Latin America, region of Grande ABC, São Paulow.J Hum Growth Dev. 2021; 31 (3): 436-446. DOI: 10.36311/jhgd.v31.12612
de Sousa CDK, Morais TC, Daboin BEG, Portugal I, Cavalcanti MPE, Echeimberg JO, Jacintho LC, Raimundo RD, Elmusharaf K, Siqueira CE. Epidemiological profile of COVID-19 in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from march 2020 to june 2021.J Hum Growth Dev. 2021; 31 (3): 507-520. DOI:10.36311/jhgd.v31.12770
Trivilato RA, Morais TC, Daboin BEG, Cavalcanti MPE, Jacintho LC, Raimundo RD, Echeimberg JO, Elmusharaf K, Siqueira CE, Figueiredo JL. Mortality and case fatality rates of COVID-19 in the State of Goiás, Brazil.J Hum Growth Dev. 2021; 31 (3): 521-532. DOI: 10.36311/jhgd.v31.12781
Valenzuela EV, Morais TC, Daboin BG, Cavalcanti MPE, Portugal IBM, Souza ISS, Ribeiro MAL, Monteiro CBM, Abreu LC. Evolution of mortality and lethality due to COVID-19 in the State of Roraima, Brazil, from march 2020 to july 2021.J Hum Growth Dev. 2021; 31 (3): 447-457. DOI: 10.36311/jhgd.v31.12184
Baggio JAO, Machado MF, Carmo RFD, Armstrong ADC, Santos ADD, Souza CDF. COVID-19 in Brazil: spatial risk, social vulnerability, human development, clinical manifestations and predictors of mortality - a retrospective study with data from 59 695 individuals. Epidemiol Infect. 2021 Apr 23;149:e100. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268821000935
Monahan C, Macdonald J, Lytle A, Apriceno M, Levy SR. COVID-19 and ageism: How positive and negative responses impact older adults and society. Am Psychol. 2020 Oct; 75 (7): 887-896. DOI: 10.1037/amp0000699
Almeida IJS, Lúcio PDS, Nascimento MFD, Coura AS. Coronavirus pandemic in light of nursing theories. Rev Bras Enferm. 2020 Dec 4;73 (suppl 2):e20200538. English, Portuguese. DOI: 10.1590/0034-7167-2020-0538
de Brito CAA, Lima PMA, de Brito MCM, de Oliveira DB. Second Episode of COVID-19 in Health Professionals: Report of Two Cases. Int Med Case Rep J. 2020 Oct 2; 13: 471-475. DOI: 10.2147/IMCRJ.S277882
Fernandes LHS, Araujo FHA, Silva MAR, Acioli-Santos B. Predictability of COVID-19 worldwide lethality using permutation-information theory quantifiers. Results Phys. 2021 Jul; 26: 104306. DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104306
Copyright (c) 2022 Cavalcanti MPE, Siqueira E, Moraes TC, Guerrero Daboin BE, Portugal IBM, Pimentel RMM, da Silva HMR, Jacintho LC, Elmusharaf K, Abreu LC.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.