Social distancing measures may have reduced the estimated deaths related to Covid-19 in Brazil

  • Vitor E. Valenti Centro de Estudos do Sistema Nervoso Autônomo (CESNA), Universidade Estadual de São Paulo, UNESP, Marília, Brazil
  • Pedro de Lemos Menezes Universidade de Ciências da Saúde de Alagoas e Centro Universitário CESMAC, AL, Brazil
  • Ana Carolina Gonçalves de Abreu Centro de Estudos do Sistema Nervoso Autônomo (CESNA), Universidade Estadual de São Paulo, UNESP, Marília, Brazil/ Escola de Medicina. Faculdade Santa Maria, Cajazeiras, PB, Brazil
  • Gustavo Nakamura Alves Vieira Instituto de Química, Universidade Estadual de Paulista, UNESP, Araraquara, Brazil
  • David M. Garner Faculdade de Saúde e Ciências da Vida, Universidade de Oxford Brooks, Reino Unido
Keywords: Beta-coronavirus, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.A.), Coronavírus, Coronavirus Infections, Death, SARS Virus

Abstract

Social distancing was planned as a preventive measure to control the extensive spread of COVID-19. COVID-19-related deaths in Brazil were analyzed during the period of social distancing measures. Mortality data for COVID-19 was obtained from the Worldometer website. Deaths were estimated up to the 31st day after the occurrence of the 5th COVID-19-related death in Brazil. Social distance was measured using Google's community mobility reports. The Brazilian epidemic curves were interconnected, and mathematical models were evaluated to fit the mortality estimation curves. The optimistic model was defined in the opening period of social distancing and, therefore, in the lower mobility (40-60%). The realistic model was calculated according to relaxed social distance measures (<40%) and the pessimistic model was calculated based on the transmission rate between 2-3. Thus, the equations of the mathematical models provided the outcomes for the date of June 9, 2020, as follows: realistic model with 40,623 deaths, pessimistic model with 64,310 deaths and the optimistic model with a projection of 31,384 deaths. As a result of these analyzes, on May 24, 2020, there were a total of 22,965 deaths related to COVID-19, and those deaths included within the proposed mathematical models were 17,452 for the optimistic model, 22,623 for the realistic model and 32,825 for the pessimistic model. Thus, it is concluded that social distancing measures promoted by the Brazilian public managers contributes to the reduction in approximately ten thousand deaths related to COVID-19 in the current pandemic scenario.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

David M. Garner, Faculdade de Saúde e Ciências da Vida, Universidade de Oxford Brooks, Reino Unido

Grupo de Pesquisa Cardiorrespiratória, Departamento de Ciências Biológicas e Médicas

References

1. Pimentel RMM, Daboin BEG, Oliveira AG, Macedo Jr H. The dissemination of COVID-19: an expectant and preventive role in global health. J Hum Growth Dev. 2020;30(1):135-40. DOI: http://doi.org/10.7322/jhgd.v30.9976

2. Abreu LC. Integrated actions and strengthening of Public Health System in Brazil in a time of pandemic. J Hum Growth Dev. 2020;30(1):05-08. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7322/jhgd.v30.9980

3. Silva CMS, Andrade AN, Nepomuceno B, Xavier DS, Lima E, Gonzales I, et al. Evidence-based Physiotherapy and Functionality in Adult and Pediatric patients with COVID-19.J Hum Growth Dev. 2020;30(1):148-55. DOI: http://doi.org/10.7322/jhgd.v30.10086

4. Ferguson NM, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Imai N, Ainslie K, Baguelin M, et al. Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand [internet] 2020. [cited 2020 Jun 09] Available from:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf.

5. Dehning J, Zierenberg J, Spitzner FP, Wibral M, Pinheiro Neto J, Wilczek M, et al. Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions. Science. 2020;eabb9789. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb9789

6. Garcia Leila Posenato, Duarte Elisete. Intervenções não farmacológicas para o enfrentamento à epidemia da COVID-19 no Brasil. Epidemiol Serv Saúde. 2020;29(2):e2020222. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5123/s1679-49742020000200009

7. Worldometer. Brazilian deaths related to COVID-19 [internet] 2020. [cited 2020 Jun 09] Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

8. Qualls N, Levitt A, Kanade N, Wright-Jegede N, Dopson S, Biggerstaff M, et al. Community mitigation guidelines to prevent pandemic influenza - United States, 2017. MMWR Recomm Rep. 2017;66(1):1-32. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.rr6601a1

9. Community Mobility Report. Veja as mudanças no deslocamento da sua comunidade em função da COVID-19 [internet] 2020. [cited 2020 Jun 09] Available from: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/.

10. Brasil. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios. PNAD Contínua: Acesso à Internet e à televisão e posse de telefone móvel celular para uso pessoal 2017. [cited 2020 Jun 03] Available from: https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/visualizacao/livros/liv101631_informativo.pdf

11. Menezes PM, Garner DM, Valenti VE. Brazil is projected to be the next global covid-19 pandemic epicenter. MedRxiv. 2020.04.28.20083675. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.28.20083675
Published
2020-06-17
Section
ORIGINAL ARTICLES